Climate Climate forecasting is one of the most challenging tasks that climate prediction centers encounter due to uncertainties in the currently available state-of-the-art climate prediction models. The multi-model ensemble technique will be used to minimize uncertainty, thus to optimize the climate forecast information by statistically combining useful forecast signals generated climate prediction data by other various individual climate models. Requested on some advices and reviews on risks involved with in this project, the scientists in APCC confirmed there has not been a main risk so far.
The climate prediction data will be collected from the limited number of climate centers which meet the requirements of producing dynamic climate prediction data in the global domain. These centers are Meteorological Service of Canada, China Meteorological Administration, Institute of Atmospheric Physics of China, Central Weather Bureau of Chinese Taipei, Japan Meteorological Administration, Korea Meteorological Administration, Meteorological Research Institute of Korea, Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environment Monitoring, Main Geophysical Observatory of Russia, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Centers for Environmental Prediction of US, the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction of US, and Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies of US, Bureau of Meteorology of Australia.
The multi-model ensemble climate prediction data will be processed and disseminated in real-time to all member economies, and consequently to end-users in the APEC economies.
To facilitate the data exchange and regional cooperation on the development of climate prediction techniques, this project organized the APCC Member Working Group, and Science Advisory Committee.
a. APCC Member Working Group
The Member Working Group consists of representatives from the NMHSs of all APEC member economies and participating institutions. The terms of reference are:
· to facilitate the exchange of regional climate information, particularly climate prediction among APEC member economies.
· to facilitate the individual efforts in operational centers and research institutes within the framework of APEC.
· to work closely with the Science team of APCC for the improvement of multi-model ensemble system (MMES) and development of new application areas.
b. Science Advisory Committee
The Committee consists of leading scientists appointed by the Executive Director in the fields of climate modeling and prediction, and other relevant areas of interest. The terms of reference are:
· to serve as a main science advisory body for the Executive Director on various issues relevant to the successful implementation of APCC.
· to provide guidelines on research and development activities related to APCC’s mission.
A timetable for the accomplishment of this project.
· climate prediction data collection from members (April, July, October 2007, January 2008)
· processing and dissemination of the multi-model ensemble climate prediction information to members (May, August, November 2007, February 2008)
· APCC Scientific Symposium (October 2007)
------------------------
a. APCC Member Working Group
All twenty-one member economies participate in the APCC Member Working Group; Australia; Brunei Darussalam; Canada; Chile; China; Hong Kong, China; Indonesia; Japan; Korea; Malaysia; Mexico; New Zealand; Papua New Guinea; Peru; Philippines; Russia; Singapore; Chinese Taipei; Thailand; U.S.A.; and Viet Nam.
b. APCC Science Advisory Committee
Thirteen committee members from six economies and 2 non-APEC economies; Prof. Jagadish Shukla (USA), Dr. Oscar Alves (Australia), Prof. Bin Wang (USA), Prof. Yihui Ding (China), Prof. Hui-Jun Wang(China), Prof. Akimasa Sumi (Japan), Prof. Toshio Yamagata (Japan), Dr. Vladimir Kattsov (Russian Federation), Dr. Chih-Pei Chang (USA), Dr. Anthony Rosati (USA), Prof. In-Sik Kang (Korea), Dr. Antonio Moura (Brazil), Dr. Antonio Navarra (Italy)
c. APCC Affiliated Sientists
Thirty scientists from nine economies:
Dr.Oscar Alves (Australia), Dr. Michael Coughlan (Australia), Prof. Ding Yihui (China), Prof. Huijun Wang(China), Dr. RuCong Yu(China), Prof. Johnny Chan(HK, China), Dr. George Boer (Canada), Dr. David Anderson(ECMWF), Dr. Tim Palmer(ECMWF), Dr. Franco Molteni(Italy), Prof. Akimasa Sumi (Japan), Prof. Toshio Yamagata(Japan), Prof. In-Sik Kang (Korea), Dr. Dmitry Kiktev(Russia), Dr. Valentin P. Meleshko (Russia), Prof. Chih-Pei Chang(USA), Prof. Fei-Fei Jin(USA), Dr. Ben Kirtman(USA), Dr. Arun Kumar(USA), Dr. William K.M. Lau(USA), Prof. Tim Li(USA), Prof. Lorenz Magaard(USA), Dr. Julian McCreary(USA), Dr. Andrew Robertson(USA), Dr. Siegfried Schubert(USA), Prof. Jagadish Shukla(USA), Dr Stephen Zebiak(USA), Prof. T. N. Krishnamurti (USA), Dr. Max J. Suarez (USA), Prof. Bin Wang (USA).
d. Participating Institutes in APCC Multi Model Ensemble Prediction System
Fifteen institutes from eight economies:
Meteorological Service of Canada, China Meteorological Administration, Institute of Atmospheric Physics of China, Central Weather Bureau of Chinese Taipei, Japan Meteorological Administration, Korea Meteorological Administration, Meteorological Research Institute of Korea, Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environment Monitoring, Main Geophysical Observatory of Russia, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Centers for Environmental Prediction of US, the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction of US, and Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies of US, Bureau of Meteorology of Australia.